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The Almanac Defends
Thu Oct 02, 2003
Listen in RealAudio 
Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton for The Weather Notebook. Yesterday, commentator David Laskin challenged
the claims of accuracy of The Old Farmer's Almanac. Today, Group Publisher for the Almanac,
John Pierce, responds.
BRYAN: What - what's the formula that you use all about?
PIERCE: We start with the solar cycles. Bryan, and then we look for analog years, based on
what we expect the solar activity will be. And then we translate that into a meteorological
forecast using first, climatology, which is the history of weather, and then
meteorology.
BRYAN: How accurate do you feel your forecasts are?
PIERCE: In all honesty we feel we're right about 8 times in 10 on a seasonal basis. If we
say, for example, the winter of 2003-2004 in New Hampshire is going to be, uh, below average
temperature and above average snowfall, um, we feel we'll be right at least 80% of the
time.
BRYAN: Now, there're some meteorologists and other statistical researchers who say that's not
true. Do you think they're - they're looking at the data differently?
PIERCE: Oh, I think that's a bit part of it, Bryan. Weather is so local that we only value
weather forecasts that mean something to us personally, because it influences what we do every
day.
BRYAN: So, can you tell us, in general, what the weather's going to be like for the coming
year?
PIERCE: Overall we expect the drought to continue in the west and, above average temperatures
west of the Rockies. The desert southwest will be a little bit cool at the start of the
winter, but then warm up. And we expect, um, Florida and southeastern United States to have,
uh, pretty much an average winter.
The Weather Notebook receives funding from The National Science Foundation, and Subaru, Driven
by What's Inside.
Today's Links
The Old Farmers Almanac
http://www.almanac.com/index.php
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