Predicting Fire
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If this year's early drought is any indication, this summer is shaping up to be comparable to last year's devastating wildfire season in the Western U.S. Hi, I'm Bryan Yeaton and This is The Weather Notebook.

Meteorologists in the West will play a key role in predicting and battling these blazes, correspondent Jeff Rice reports.

Unless they are human-caused, most forest and range fires are a result of the weather. Lightning generally provides the spark, and severe drought can leave forests tinder dry. Every bit as valuable as the crews on the front lines, are the meteorologists.

Weather actually creates the fire season.

Rick Ochoa is a meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho. He is part of a new program, started this year that brings together 20 meteorologists from across the country. Their goal is to team up to better predict where fires will be and how they will behave based on the weather.

We provide that information at the geographic area level, such that a fire manager in the pacific northwest may need to know what is the potential of having dry lightning… By giving that information to him and providing a long lead time, then he will have enough time to order up extra tankers or extra crews before the winds hit or lightning hits.

Meteorologists base their predictions on a combination of short and long term readings. They begin by measuring forest dryness, aided by infrared satellite technology and laboratory burn analysis. They can then gauge where the forests are most combustible. Then, by tracking storms, they hope to direct crews to fires before they get out of control. With an overall budget of $2 million dollars, Ochoa says that's a bargain.

When you consider that you can spend $2 million in one day on a large fire, it's money well spent… If we can catch them small we can put them out at a fraction of what it would cost when you have a large campaign fire.

Meteorologists can also help save lives. By monitoring wind shifts and other factors while fires are burning, they can direct fire crews to the safest locations.

That report was filed by correspondent Jeff Rice of Boise, Idaho. The Weather Notebook is a production of the Mount Washington Observatory and is supported by Subaru. Thanks today to executive producer Peter Crane.